Sep 22, 2011

Betting on UFC Fights? Some Stats to Help You Win.

Above: Not what "Punching in numbers" means.
Hey, are you a compulsive gambler? Then you need help. But are you going to bet on the upcoming UFC fight anyway? Then this guy: http://zooie.wordpress.com/2011/09/21/betting-on-ufc-fights-a-statistical-data-analysis/ deserves your attention because he compiled data over every UFC fight and posted the trends he found. I just put the data itself below, but for more detailed information and context, please visit his site (URL above).

Remember, don't just read the trend, also look at the ratio and overall number of fights looked at. Also try to think of the cases and their context in which the trend failed to accurately predict what would happen.

UFC-Specific Statistical Insights:

Fighters older than 32 years of age will more likely lose
This was validated in 173 out of 277 (62%) fights*

Fighters with more than 6 TKO victories fighting opponents older than 32 years of age will more likely win
This was validated in 47 out of 60 (78%) fights*

Fighters from Japan will more likely lose
This was validated in 36 out of 51 (71%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 2 or more KOs will more likely lose
This was validated in 54 out of 84 (64%) fights*

Fighters with 3x or more decision wins and are greater than 3% taller than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 32 out of 38 (84%) fights*

Fighters with no wrestling background vs fighters who do have one more likely lose
This was validated in 64 out of 90 (71%) fights*

Fighters fighting opponents with 3x or less decision wins and are on a 6 fight (or better) winning streak more likely win
This was validated in 30 out of 39 (77%) fights*

Fighters taller than their opponents by 3% and have won 3x more wins by decision will more likely win
This was validated in 32 out of 38 (84%) fights*

Fighters who have won 3x or more decisions than their opponent will more likely win
This was validated in 142 out of 235 (60%) fights*

Fighters younger than their opponents by 3 or more years in age will more likely win
This was validated in 165 out of 278 (59%) fights*

Fighters who haven’t fought in more than 210 days will more likely lose
This was validated in 162 out of 276 (59%) fights*

Fighters taller than their opponents by 3% will more likely win
This was validated in 159 out of 274 (58%) fights*

Fighters who have lost less by submission than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 75 out of 119 (63%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 6 or more fights will more likely lose
This was validated in 172 out of 291 (60%) fights*

Fighters who have 18 or more wins and never had a 2 fight losing streak more likely win
This was validated in 79 out of 126 (63%) fights*

Fighters who’ve lose back to back fights will more likely lose
This was validated in 197 out of 362 (54%) fights

Fighters with 0 TKO victories will more likely lose
This was validated in 90 out of 164 (55%) fights

Fighters fighting opponents out of Greg Jackson’s camp will more likely lose
This was validated in 38 out of 63 (60%) fights

Top Insights over All MMA Fights

Fighters with 15 or more wins that have 50% less losses than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 239 out of 307 (78%) fights*

Fighters fighting American opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 387 out of 605 (64%) fights*

Fighters with 2x more (or better) wins than their opponents and those opponents lost their last fights will more likely win
This was validated in 709 out of 1049 (68%) fights*

Fighters who’ve lost their last 4 fights in a row will more likely lose
This was validated in 173 out of 255 (68%) fights*

Fighters currently on a 3 fight (or better) winning streak will more likely win
This was validated in 1172 out of 1884 (62%) fights*

Fighters with 3x or more wins than their opponents will more likely win
This was validated in 1395 out of 2387 (58%) fights*

Fighters who have lost 7 or more times will more likely lose
This was validated in 1305 out of 2299 (57%) fights*

Fighters with no jiu jitsu in their background versus fighters who do have it more likely lose
This was validated in 334 out of 568 (59%) fights*

Fighters who have lost by submission 5 or more times will more likely lose
This was validated in 580 out of 986 (59%) fights*

Fighters in the Middleweight division who fought their last fight more recently will more likely win
This was validated in 272 out of 446 (61%) fights*

Fighters in the Lightweight division fighting 6 foot tall fighters (or higher) will more likely win
This was validated in 50 out of 83 (60%) fights


Once again, visit  http://zooie.wordpress.com/2011/09/21/betting-on-ufc-fights-a-statistical-data-analysis/ for the full article. Also, if you have a gambling/betting problem, talk to someone about it. Seriously. Otherwise, best of luck on the next fight!

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